Equities:
S&P I am using as a proxy for all us markets… Russel 2k is more sold off, Nasdaq you could argue is still $, but whatever. This is the battle plan I’ve been using for the institutional capital I manage. We’ve deployed some already, and sold 50% of our put option portfolio. This chart is long term, simple demand zones on a weekly timeframe. When we have events like this it pays to zoom out and focus on risk management+disciplined execution above all else. While I have a tail risk scenario that the FED actions wont work, and deflation is setting in, and the fucking USD is going to be replaced by a treasury dollar or some global currency, that’s not my primary expectation…
Why THIS week? Well… S&P has been consolidating here really well, which is a good sign. Typically big wicks and Vbottoms aren’t healthy in equity markets or sustainable for bottoms.
Here is my 2min scalping chart.. a busy looking thing with my bot signals etc. The green box below is the possibility of one last flush down – who knows.
Timing wise we have A LOT of TD9 signals coming across equities. We have TD9 daily’s that printed yesterday on most major indices (S&P, DOW etc). We also have WEEKLY TD9’s printing on VIX, and weekly 8’s on VXX, SVXY etc… That is about as good as it gets. TD9 is Tom Demark’s timing indicator he developed in the 80’s. Tone Vays stole it and sells it (he popularized it’s use in crypto, arguably).
So in any case, I’ve been buying. I think we have a 70%+ chance of a huge bounce over the next few days and into next week. If we really melt down, then it is what it is.
Some sectors I particularly like are Natural Gas (few people realize natgas is a product of shale oil drilling) – How many shale oil drillers are solvent/operating right now? Combined with a juicy technical setup I’ve been accumulating GPOR, MR (montage), AR, RRC etc…
Precious metals I like… but the timing is tricky. I’ve started buying some longer term OTM calls on MUX, AG, but I am not convinced we’ve fully washed out yet. As we know in liquidity events like 2008; EVERYTHING gets sold off. Usually there will be a day where the market will keep dropping and metals will rally – that is a sign to look for that the sector might be bottoming.
Some of the dogshit I’ve been buying… I did pick up some Norwegian Cruise Lines, this is selling for about 85% off, looking for more of a tech bounce as opposed to longer term hold. I also picked up HIVE blockchain a few days ago, and some RIOT (they are a mining company, book value was $1.14 and largely cash at their last earnings – I believe they are trading below cash value which is insane… although may still be a tough environment for markets).
